Probably worth mentioning is that developments in the Middle East have not yet been hitting the euro since energy markets (both crude oil and natural gas) remain subdued.

For today, the highlight will be the release of the European Central Bank minutes at 13:30 CET and President Christine Lagarde speaking on a panel at 16:15 CET. Her message yesterday was a little mixed. Like other ECB members, she presented a view that aggressive market pricing of the ECB easing cycle was self-defeating – i.e. if the market softened financial conditions too much the ECB would not cut rates. But then she said the ECB would cut rates in the summer. We doubt the ECB minutes will shed too much light on this dilemma.

EUR/USD may well trade in a tight 1.0880-1.0950 range today.

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